Editor’s Note: This post was written by Ashleigh Beer, Tyler Del Giudice, and Mike Horowitz. It was written before the Nov. 8 election but, due to editorial oversight, was not published until Nov. 9.

The race the NY 22nd Congressional is very competitive, between Republican Claudia Tenney, Democrat Kim Myers, and Upstate Jobs candidate Martin Babinec. We predict Republican Claudia Tenney will squeeze out victory by a margin of 42% to 39% for Myers, and 19% for Martin Babinec.

Incumbent Representative Richard Hanna, a Republican, is retiring after serving 2 terms in Congress. Hanna is remains popular with his constituents, boasting a 55% to 30% favorability ratio, according to the most recent Siena Poll. Voters in the district seem to trust and respect Hanna, and thus we believe the impact of Hanna’s refusal to endorse Republican Claudia Tenney, and praise of Myers and Babinec, will be noticeable in the Election Day results. Hanna is also the only Republican sitting member of Congress to endorse Hillary Clinton, in a race where Claudia Tenney is running closely with Donald Trump, and Myers has continued support for Hillary Clinton. Babinec has refused to announce which candidate he supports. Tenney has attempted to portray Myers and Babinec as Clinton supporters. However, we believe voters will give Tenney the edge due in part because of the district’s clear support for Donald Trump.

Money from outside the district has also skewed the race in Tenney’s favor. The House Majority SuperPAC spent $2.8 million in opposition and support of candidates. In addition, Claudia Tenney is hammering Kim Myers and Martin Babinec in negative ads over the final week until Election Day.  However, Myers and Babinec appear to be staying mostly positive in their advertisement messages.  In a recent ad sponsored by the NRCC, they portrayed Kim Myers and Martin Babinec as supporting Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, and Nancy Pelosi. We believe these ads will be effective in gaining support for Tenney. Constituents are dissatisfied with the leadership of politicians like Cuomo and Pelosi. Trump’s promises to clean up Washington and fight corrupt politicians appeal to the constituents of the 22nd district of New York. Trump’s campaign promises help Tenney’s campaign also.

The current counties that make up the district are Chenango, Cortland, Madison, and Oneida counties, and some parts of Broome, Herkimer, Oswego, and Tioga counties. Some of the more well known cities and landmarks within this district are Utica, Rome, Cortland and Binghamton, Binghamton University, Hamilton College and Colgate University. This district maintains an average of 140 people per square mile, which is low compared to the rest of the state. According to the most recent Census data, agriculture and similar industries account for roughly one percent of this district’s labor force, while thirty percent of jobs can be found in “Educational services, and health care and social assistance”. The second largest workforce in this district is manufacturing, which seems to be a more logical fit considering the average person per square mile statistic mentioned earlier. Manufacturing also boasts the second highest paid workforce in the district, trailing educational,healthcare and social service by roughly $300,000. Also, the district has a per capita income of just over $65,000. In most election years, these statistics would seem to favor the Democratic candidate, however this year is not like others. With Donald Trump’s brash muckraker mentality he has fostered support among these demographics for the Republican party; thus favoring Claudia Tenney.

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